What to expect from Márquez’s latest MotoGP comeback

Marc Márquez races again at Aragón this weekend, so how will he go? And does it really matter? Because all that really matters is 2023, right?

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Márquez during last week’s Misano tests, where he was the fastest Honda rider, despite a 14-week absence from MotoGP

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Don’t expect much from Marc Márquez when he returns to action at Aragón this weekend.

Wait, I’ll rewrite that.

Don’t expect much from Marc Márquez when he returns to action at Aragón this weekend, but…

That’s the thing about Márquez, you just don’t know what he might do, just like you never knew what Kevin Schwantz might do. Impossible is a word that doesn’t exist for riders like these.

“With Marc everything is on another planet,” confirms his team manager Alberto Puig. “Obviously from a racing point of view the guy is an animal. When he puts on his helmet and goes out on track you know something is going to happen, something special.”

Of course, Márquez’s return to action at Aragón will be different. He rode his last race at Mugello at the end of May, then underwent the biggest operation he’s ever had. And he’s had a few.

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Márquez chasing Aragón winner Bagnaia last year – MotoGP hasn’t had a last-lap overtake since

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His return is also unique. In seven decades of grand prix racing there’s never been a champion who’s spent so much time injured without deciding that enough is enough. The six-time MotoGP king didn’t ride a MotoGP bike for nine months between his accident at Jerez in July 2020 and his Portimão return in April 2021. And this Sunday when he lines up on the grid it will be four months since his last race.

And how much does MotoGP need Márquez? Like the semi-desert around Aragón needs the rain. The last time MotoGP had a last-lap overtake for the win was a full year ago at Aragón, when Márquez twice flung his Honda past eventual winner Pecco Bagnaia’s Ducati. In the 19 races since then it’s been follow-my-leader all the way, with not one rider able to snatch victory from the leader at the last gasp.

Last time at Aragón, Márquez knew he didn’t have the outright speed to beat Bagnaia, but he had a go anyway, riding the kind of race that Valentino Rossi rode at Laguna Seca in 2008, when the seven-times MotoGP champion battled with Casey Stoner, charging past whenever he could, regardless of whether he could make the pass stick, hoping to disrupt Bagnaia’s progress and perhaps rattle him into a mistake. It didn’t work but it was worth a go.

Márquez probably won’t battle for victory this weekend, because that isn’t the plan.

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Instead, there are two main focuses behind his earlier-than-expected return, 15 weeks after a humeral osteotomy on his troublesome right arm, the fourth since he broke the arm at Jerez. This required surgeons to saw through the humerus (upper-arm) bone, then rotate the lower segment by 30 degrees. This was to fix the problem that had haunted Márquez since last year’s comeback – due to earlier shoulder injuries and post-fracture problems with the arm he couldn’t get into the contorted position he needs to ride the way he rides.

His first focus therefore is fitness. Although Márquez says the bone is “100% fixed” he knows he isn’t 100% fit to race a MotoGP bike. He also knows that the only way to get there is by racing a MotoGP bike. Literally, the only way to rebuild the muscles and regain muscle memory is by putting himself through repeated 200mph, 60-degrees-of-lean and 2g-on-the-brakes gym workouts.

“The best way to grow the muscles, to be more confident and to be faster is to be on the bike,” he said after completing MotoGP’s two-day test at Misano last week. “Of course you need a minimum level in your arm, a minimum force, because the intensity of a race weekend is completely different to a test.”

Therefore expect Márquez to do mostly short runs during Friday and Saturday practice, then undergo ice and physiotherapy, gradually building strength, weekend by weekend.

“During the tests I was usually doing four-lap runs – two laps to warm my body, then two laps to push. My last run I did seven laps to understand the limit.

“I was happy, very happy with the tests. It was really important for me to understand the situation on the second day, when the feeling was better, especially in morning. In the afternoon I struggled a bit more with arm position, because the muscles were empty, then I started to use some strange positions on the bike and then I started to feel some pain, so we stopped. That was in the plan – what the doctors and physios told me before the test was exactly what happened in the test.”

And this is where Márquez needs to be careful at Aragón and at 2022’s five remaining races (six GPs over eight weekends!) He needs to listen to his body during races, when pro-racers tend to ignore any pain they feel, because whatever results he achieves this year are essentially irrelevant. All he needs to do is work towards getting the arm back to full strength, so he can fight for the title in 2023. Therefore if he feels a lot of pain during a race, or the muscles are empty, he should quietly withdraw, understanding that the arm will get stronger and stronger, if he listens to it.

On the other hand and once again, if he does feel good on the bike for the full 23 laps, you can’t rule out a strong result.

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Márquez with crew chief Santi Hernandez – he always seems happiest when he’s racing or about to go racing

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Márquez’s second focus is machine development. Honda is currently enduring its worst season in four decades, so he knows his input is vital to getting MotoGP’s most successful factory back on track.

Honda is struggling for two reasons – the 2022 RC213V isn’t quite right and the factory has lost its fastest rider – but which is the primary reason behind Honda’s gloomy results? Incredibly (but also not incredible at all) Márquez was Honda’s fastest rider during the Misano tests and is still its highest-ranked rider in the 2022 championship, despite missing eight of the 14 races so far.

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This is one reason why Honda is having such gloomy time – fellow HRC riders Pol Espargaro, Alex Márquez and Takaaki Nakagami all suffered injuries before the summer break, so they’re riding gun-shy, and when your riders aren’t caning the machine to its very limit, you’re not going to make progress with machine development.

The current RC213V isn’t a bad motorcycle. At the last three races the top-placed RC213V was an average of eight tenths a lap off the winner. That’s hardly a disastrous race pace, especially when the riders aren’t on form, but when MotoGP is so tightly packed, the results say it’s a disaster. And whatever the situation, the only thing that matters in racing is the result.

Márquez tried many development parts at Misano, including a swingarm created by Moto2 dominators Kalex, the most successful chassis designers in the paddock. Nowadays MotoGP is all about marginal gains – engineers chase improvements that will give them a tenth of a second, if they’re lucky, so it’s all about the details.

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Márquez and Honda have work to do to get the RC213V right for 2023

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What was most evident during the Misano tests was Márquez’s grin. He lives to race and his happiness at being back on a MotoGP bike was written all over his face. The first time he walked out of his garage to climb about his RC213V on the Tuesday he patted the fuel tank as he climbed aboard.

It was the same during his first test of 2022, at Mandalika, after missing the earlier Sepang session. At the end of the test he tweeted, “I want more motorbike”.

There is no doubt whatsoever that if Márquez can get back to winning again that this will be the greatest comeback in Grand Prix history. He still has a long road ahead of him and he knows that this is his last chance. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

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