What does Honda need to do to win again in MotoGP?

With Marc Márquez lost to injury and post-op rehab, Honda is struggling like never before in MotoGP, so what does grand prix racing’s most successful manufacturer need to win again? Plus Márquez’s plans to race again, possibly in October

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Honda is currently struggling through its toughest MotoGP season since it raced the radical oval-piston NR500 four-stroke against the dominant 500cc two-strokes in the late 1970s and early 80s.

In some ways this is no surprise because GP racing’s most successful manufacturer has been missing its top rider pretty much since he was injured during the 2020 Spanish GP.

Marc Márquez won six riders’ titles and helped Honda to six constructors’ titles between 2013 and 2019. Since then Honda has been out of the race, just like Yamaha when Wayne Rainey’s career ended in 1993, like Suzuki when Kevin Schwantz retired in 1995 and like Ducati when Casey Stoner left in 2011.

“We have these entry highsides because it feels like the rear is never grabbing the asphalt.”

What does this tell us? That motorcycle racing is very much a human sport, much more so than car racing. Even now, when MotoGP bikes are packed with Formula 1-inspired technology, it’s still the rider that makes the difference, not only in race results but also in machine development

“Integration of the rider to the bike is way more critical than in Formula 1,” says legendary F1 engineer John Barnard, who also worked in MotoGP in the early years of the 990cc four-strokes. “I don’t think all the riders want the bike to do the same thing, so you’ve got to take what you’ve got and take it close to what the rider wants.”

Thus removing Márquez from that equation has hurt Honda, especially because HRC engineers have been integrating the RC213V towards his remarkable riding technique for the past decade.

Some fans wonder why engineers do this – look to their fastest rider to lead the way in development. Because all that matters is winning races and championships. Finishing a race with four or five of your riders in the top five is very nice – like Honda often did with its sublime RC211V – but all that matters is winning the race and you only need one rider to do that. So, yes, Márquez’s genius has put Honda in a hole.

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In 2019 Honda won the riders and constructors titles with Márquez and the RC213V – since then the company hasn’t won a single title

Honda redesigned its RC213V almost completely for 2022, largely to get more performance from MotoGP’s latest rear slick, introduced two years ago, which changed the dynamics of MotoGP. Pol Espargaró’s third place at the season-opening Qatar GP suggested Honda had got the bike right, but no podiums since then suggests otherwise.

“What Honda is looking is more rear contact,” says Espargaró. “Not just grip in acceleration but also rear contact in entry, where I cannot apply as much rear-brake power as I want to because the rear tyre always seems to be floating. This is very difficult and this is why we have these entry highsides, because it feels like the rear is never really grabbing the asphalt.”

This is a surprise, because the 2022 RC213V was specifically designed to make the most of the grippier rear slick with its softer casing. However, MotoGP machine balance is becoming more and more tricky, as the racing gets closer and the perfect balance between the front and rear Michelins becomes harder to find.

“The bikes have to be very, very balanced between the front and the rear,” says HRC test rider Stefan Bradl, who has been subbing for Márquez, which has had the knock-on effect of restricting his testing outings. “This is what we are missing. We have one strong point, which is straight-line braking. Otherwise the bike isn’t in balance – the front turns, but the rear doesn’t, so the whole bike doesn’t want to work together.

“Something is missing to give us smooth riding, so we always have to fight on the bike to get what we want – braking and turning – which makes riding very difficult and inconsistent. Then it’s easy to make mistakes because things aren’t smooth and working together.”

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Stefan Bradl – subbing for Márquez has made it difficult to carry out all his usual testing duties, further affecting RC213V development

This is one reason why Honda’s current four riders: Espargaró, Bradl, Takaaki Nakagami and Alex Márquez have suffered many crashes, which damages rider confidence, which also affects machine development, because the riders become gun-shy and can’t push to the limit, which is the only place to learn.

I asked some rival MotoGP engineers what they thought about Honda’s problems, looking from the outside in, because all engineers watch their rivals very closely.

“Nowadays there is only a difference of a millimetre here and a millimetre here between all the bikes, so I don’t think Honda have any technical issues they can’t fix,” one engineer told me. “It’s more how they manage things and make decisions.”

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Márquez was at the Red Bull Ring on Thursday and Friday to talk with HRC engineers and the 29-year-old agrees with this rival engineer’s analysis

“Honda and HRC are in a difficult moment, but for me the most important thing isn’t the bike, it’s more the project,” he said. “The way all the information flows inside the team is most important. The information needs to flow in a good way in all areas. If the information flows well and all the people are motivated, for sure we will get out from this situation.”

This theory fits many of the stories of manufacturer comebacks during the MotoGP years: Masao Furusawa helping Yamaha come back from the brink a decade and a half ago, Gigi Dall’Igna reorganising Ducati Corse to help the factory return from ignominy and Davide Brivio uniting the Japanese and Italian elements at Suzuki to win the 2020 MotoGP title.

Obviously the European manufacturers are currently dominating MotoGP, with six European bikes in the top seven of the riders championship and Ducati and Aprilia making the headlines.

“When I talk about our team it isn’t people, it’s the concept of the team,” Márquez added. “We are seeing European teams working in a different way.”

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LCR Honda riders Nakagami and Alex Márquez are suffering the same problems as the factory squad

Reigning champion and current points leader Fabio Quartararo (who is the only rider of a Japanese motorcycle to have won a MotoGP race this year) believes there’s also a cultural issue at play, that the Japanese are too conservative, especially when it comes to respecting the technical rules.

“I think we [Yamaha] are playing too far from the [limit of] the rules and I think we are taking a little too much care, sometimes we have to play a bit more,” says Quartararo. “We are changing but we are still too slow. We need to take a little bit of the Italian mentality, this is the way to try many things.”

Most obviously the Japanese are very conservative with downforce aerodynamics. Take a look at the Aprilia, the Ducati and the KTM, then compare them with the Honda, Suzuki and Yamaha. This is partly because the Japanese manufacturers don’t really want to go down the aero road, because they see MotoGP as a part of their streetbike development programmes and they see no role for extreme aero on streetbikes. But it’s now obvious that you need extreme aero to win in MotoGP, so Honda and Yamaha need to get busy with this.

“The category is changing,” Márquez explained. “Before the bikes were very low and short, now they are getting bigger and taller. The last time I rode at Mugello our bike was difficult – it was so difficult to take profit of the bike. I believe in our engineers but they need to understand this.

“We see Honda working a lot, more than ever, and the budget is there. When I say change the team I mean the coordination. Honda have won more titles than any other brand, so I believe in them and I think I can come back to the top with them.

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Márquez fighting with his RC213V at Mugello, his last race before his latest surgery

“But they need to organise things well, because every year we have more races and less testing, so the work at the factory becomes more important than the work at the circuits. And what happens at the circuits needs to work together with what happens at the factory.”

The lack of testing certainly hasn’t helped Honda this year, with a very different motorcycle and just a few days of testing to get the bike right.

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Like Formula 1, Dorna continues to increase the number of races, while decreasing testing, because races generate income and testing doesn’t. In F1 much development can be done via computer simulation, but this isn’t so easy in motorcycle racing, because bikes are more ‘personal’ than cars.

Therefore once you are in a hole it’s more difficult to climb out of it.

Last week Márquez also revealed his hopes to return to racing this season, following a major fourth surgery to his troublesome right-arm injury, undertaken in the USA in early July

His reason for planning a 2022 return, rather than working on his arm until pre-season testing starts in February, is because he wants to find a development direction for the 2023 RC213V. If he leaves his return until February it will be too late to have any real say in the shape of the new bike. Obviously, his return depends on getting the green light to intensify his rehab programme following a major medical check this week.

If he does get the OK from his doctors it would make sense to contest the final two races, at Sepang and Valencia, especially because Valencia is the venue for post-season testing and Sepang will host the first pre-season tests of 2023.

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Márquez is training again – he could return to racing in October, so long as his right arm is ready

“My intention is to make some races this year,” he confirmed. “This week we will have the answer if it’s possible or not. I don’t think I can ride at the Misano tests [next month] because this is too tight. If my doctors say the situation with the bone is OK I will start working to come back because it’s important to prepare for 2023.”

Márquez also revealed what led him to stop racing in June and undergo an operation which he knew was his final chance to continue racing.

“It was take that decision or finish my career,” he said. “The worst moment was at Le Mans and before Mugello, before I took the decision to have the operation, because I was competing and I started to have some doubts – is it the arm or is it the bike?

“I tried to follow my instincts and what I felt in my body and once I took the decision to have the surgery everything on my mental side was in a good way and after the surgery I was already convinced and optimistic that it will work. Now it looks like the arm is going well. Of course even now I have doubts but when I ride a MotoGP bike again I will know if it’s OK or not.”