Why winner of first F1 race this year probably won't be champion

F1

There's no better way to start the F1 season than with a victory. But as Andrew Frankel discovers, most drivers who win the first race of the year don't go on to take the championship

Lewis Hamilton congratulates 2019 Australian GP winner Valtteri Bottas on the podium

Valtteri Bottas has won two season-opening races, but never the championship

William West/AFP via Getty Images

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I have bad news for the winner of this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix: chances are you’re not going to be world champion this year. But I have good news for whichever team made the car you’ve been sitting in: the odds are it will win the world championship this year. And the news is not all bad for you either: because the overwhelming likelihood is that you’ve either already won the title in a previous year, are the current holder or will win it before your career is over. So relax and enjoy your celebrations.

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How do I know all this? Only because I was stupid enough to suggest to my editor I look into what can be read into the opening round of the Formula 1 championship, specifically to see what likelihood or otherwise the result conferred on the winner of that race. So I went back through all previous 73 years of the drivers’ championships and compared first race winners in each year to that year’s ultimate champion. And once I’d done that, and because I’m a complete glutton for punishment, I went and did it all over again throughout the 64 years that the constructors’ title has been in play.

And yes, I know, you can prove anything with statistics. For example the numbers show that in the last 73 seasons only 46.6% of the drivers who won the opening round went on to become that year’s world champion, hence my rather headline grabbing first sentence. Of course what these stats don’t reveal, and my head already hurts far too much to go looking for those that do, is what chances you’d have if you’d finished, second, third, anywhere else or, heaven forbid, DNF’d. But a lot less than 46.6% I’ll warrant. So while you may not be likely to win the title this year, at the same time you’re far more likely to do so than anyone else. After all someone, whether it is likely or not, will take that title. So I hope there is some comfort in that.

How F1 champions began winning seasons graphic

Also it is to be remembered (ok, counted out, recounted and written about still in blind terror that you’ve added it up wrong), that all those 73 titles have been won by just 34 drivers, which seems to suggest that if you win one title, you’re likely to win another. The odds, however, are 50/50: there have been 17 drivers who have won more than one title since 1950 and 17 who won just once.

The picture is rather more rosy if you’re a constructor: in the 65 seasons since Vanwall won the first in 1958, exactly 60% of constructors whose car has won the first round of the season have gone on to take the title by the end of the year. And if you win one title, you’re very likely to win another. In all those years, just six title-winning constructors failed to become multiple champions: Vanwall of course, plus BRM, Matra, Tyrrell, Benetton and Brawn.

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But there is considerable variance across the eras, reflecting often as not a period when one driver became utterly dominant. In the 1950s, for example, eight out of the ten opening rounds were won by that year’s eventual world champion, but five of those were Fangio who never failed to win the opening round of a championship-winning season. Yet by the 1970s if you won the first round your chances of becoming champion that year were tiny: indeed it was done just once by Mario Andretti in 1978. Yet in the ‘90s and ‘00s, fully 80% of first race winners would become champions that year.

It’s interesting (to me at least) to look at individual drivers too. As already stated, Fangio came into every championship year at full throttle. Lewis Hamilton, by contrast, appears to need a warm up phase: he has won seven titles (to date) compared to Fangio’s five, but in those seven years has won the first round only twice – in 2008 and 2015. So if Hamilton lucks out this weekend, do not write him off for the season. Michael Schumacher, the only other driver with five or more titles, is much more from the Fangio mould: he won seven titles and in all those years only failed to win the first round once – in 2003 if you’re interested.

What can be read into this? Very little I suspect. But it is perhaps worth remembering that whoever wins this weekend is still statistically not likely to win the title and that it will go to one of the other far less likely drivers out there…

 

1950s

Juan Manuel Fangio and Mercedes surrounded bhy crowd after winning 1955 Argentine Grand Prix

Fangio starts 1955 with a win — as he did all of his championship seasons

El Grafico/Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
1950 Farina Farina
1951 Fangio Fangio
1952 Taruffi Ascari
1953 Ascari Ascari
1954 Fangio Fangio
1955 Fangio Fangio
1956 Fangio* Fangio
1957 Fangio Fangio
1958 Moss Hawthorn Cooper Vanwall
1959 Brabham Brabham Cooper Cooper

*Shared car with Musso

 


1960s

Bruce McLaren on his way to winning the 1960 Argentine Grand Prix

Bruce McLaren in Buenos Aires, on his way to winning the first GP of 1960

Bernard Cahier/Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
1960 McLaren Brabham Cooper Cooper
1961 Moss P Hill Lotus Ferrari
1962 G Hill G Hill BRM BRM
1963 G Hill Clark BRM Lotus
1964 G Hill Surtees BRM Ferrari
1965 Clark Clark Lotus Lotus
1966 Stewart Brabham BRM Brabham
1967 Rodriguez Hulme Cooper Brabham
1968 Clark G Hill Lotus Lotus
1969 Stewart Stewart Matra Matra

 


1970s

Jacques Lafitte celebrates winning the season opening 1979 Grand Prix

Jacques Laffite won the ’79 season-opening Argentine GP but title went to Scheckter

Bernard Cahier/Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
1970 Brabham Rindt Brabham Lotus
1971 Andretti Stewart Tyrrell Tyrrell
1972 Stewart Fittipaldi Tyrrell Lotus
1973 Fittipaldi Stewart Tyrrell Lotus
1974 Hulme Fittipaldi McLaren McLaren
1975 Fittipaldi Lauda McLaren Ferrari
1976 Lauda Hunt Ferrari Ferrari
1977 Scheckter Lauda Wolf Ferrari
1978 Andretti Andretti Lotus Lotus
1979 Laffite Scheckter Ligier Ferrari

 


1980s

Nigel Mansell on the top of the podium after wiunning 1989 Brazilian Grand Prix

Nigel Mansell began his Ferrari career, and the 1989 season, with a win in Brazil. The title eluded him that year though

Paul-Henri Cahier/Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
1980 Jones Jones Williams Williams
1981 Jones Piquet Williams Williams
1982 Prost Rosberg Renault Ferrari
1983 Piquet Piquet Brabham Ferrari
1984 Prost Lauda McLaren McLaren
1985 Prost Prost McLaren McLaren
1986 Piquet Prost Williams Williams
1987 Prost Piquet McLaren Williams
1988 Prost Senna McLaren McLaren
1989 Mansell Prost Ferrari McLaren

 


1990s

Michael Schumacher sprays David Coulthard with champagne on the podium at 1997 Australian GP

Victory for David Coulthard in Audtralia at the start of 1997 season but it would be Jacques Villeneuve’s year

Paul-Henri Cahier/Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
1990 Senna Senna McLaren McLaren
1991 Senna Senna McLaren McLaren
1992 Mansell Mansell Williams Williams
1993 Prost Prost Williams Williams
1994 Schumacher Schumacher Benetton Williams
1995 Schumacher Schumacher Benetton Benetton
1996 D Hill D Hill Williams Williams
1997 Coulthard Villeneuve McLaren Williams
1998 Häkkinen Häkkinen McLaren McLaren
1999 Irvine Häkkinen Ferrari Ferrari

 


2000s

Ferrari team on pitwall cheer as Michael Schuamkcher crosses the line to win 2000 Australian Grand prix

Ferrari domination begins: Michael Schumacher wins 2000 Australian GP

Torsten Blackwood/AFP via Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
2000 Schumacher Schumacher Ferrari Ferrari
2001 Schumacher Schumacher Ferrari Ferrari
2002 Schumacher Schumacher Ferrari Ferrari
2003 Coulthard Schumacher McLaren Ferrari
2004 Schumacher Schumacher Ferrari Ferrari
2005 Fisichella Alonso Renault Renault
2006 Alonso Alonso Renault Renault
2007 Räikkönen Räikkönen Ferrari Ferrari
2008 Hamilton Hamilton McLaren Ferrari
2009 Button Button Brawn Brawn

 


2010s

Kimi Raikkonen holds 2013 australian Grand prix winning trophy

Winning with Lotus: Räikkönen wins the first race of 2013 in Melbourne

Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
2010 Alonso Vettel Ferrari Red Bull
2011 Vettel Vettel Red Bull Red Bull
2012 Button Vettel McLaren Red Bull
2013 Räikkönen Vettel Lotus Red Bull
2014 Rosberg Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes
2015 Hamilton Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes
2016 Rosberg Rosberg Mercedes Mercedes
2017 Vettel Hamilton Ferrari Mercedes
2018 Vettel Hamilton Ferrari Mercedes
2019 Bottas Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes

 


2020s

Charles Leclerc holds his arms up after winning 2022 Bahrain Grand Prix

Leclerc’s winning start to 2022, but Ferrari’s advantage would be chopped away

Dan Istitene/F1 via Getty Images

Year First race winner Drivers’ champion First race-winning constructor Constructors’ champion
2020 Bottas Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes
2021 Hamilton Verstappen Mercedes Mercedes
2022 Leclerc Verstappen Ferrari Red Bull