Why Sebastian Vettel's Japanese GP drive was even better than you thought

Sebastian Vettel's drive to sixth place was one of the feelgood stories from the Japanese GP. But it was hard-won. We've examined his F1 race data to reveal why the driver of the day award was well deserved

Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso battling at the 2022 Japanese Grand Prix

Vettel keeps his nose ahead as he and Alonso race to the line

Florent Gooden / DPPI

Two multiple world champions, battling like they were teenage karters and split by less than the blink of an eye at the flag: no wonder it brought roars of appreciation from the grandstands.

Sebastian Vettel prevailing against Fernando Alonso capped a joyous Japanese Grand Prix weekend for the retiring four-time champion who was saying his goodbyes to Suzuka.

After setting a qualifying time (below) that would put him ninth on the grid, he toured the circuit, waved to fans and radioed in: “This circuit is so much better than the other ones”.

Close-up of Sebastian Vettel in the cockpit of his Aston Martin on track in qualifying for the Japanese GPBut Sunday would bring an even more apt farewell, as Vettel raced Alonso to the line, pipping his old adversary to sixth place by 11-hundredths of a second.

Spinning alongside Alonso at the start proved to be a blessing in disguise. With less to lose, he made a bold gambit to switch to intermediate tyres early, which proved the right choice at the right time and vaulted Vettel towards the front of the pack.

It wasn’t just a lucky break. His race data, laid out below, reveals how he extracted strong pace from the Aston Martin, coaxed longevity from the tyres, and showed his mettle as he held off a charging Alonso.

 

Vettel’s qualifying 

Chart 1 Q2 Run Compared to Ricciardo

2022 Japanese GP Ricciardo and Vettel sector times

Vettel only just made it through Q1 after a sluggish run, but then hooked up a blinding lap to edge himself into his first Q3 appearance since Baku this year – beating Daniel Ricciardo by a mere 0.003sec

Sebastian Vettel approaches the hairpin at Suzuka during the 2022 Japanese GP weekendThe McLaren was faster on the majority of the track but the green sections in the graphic above show where Vettel was able to find more performance than Ricciardo: in the technical esses, hairpin (right) and Spoon corner to keep himself in contention.

But it was his strong exit out of the final chicane that set Vettel up for a strong run to the finish line that had him qualify into Q3. The end result was a starting grid position of P9.

 

Pitstops shake up the positions

Chart 2 Race lap chart

Race lap chart for 2022 Japanese GP

Vettel’s ninth-place grid spot put him in a prime position to challenge for points, but that hope seemed to evaporate in the mass of spray at the start.

He drifted too far to the outer extremities of the track, which invited a spin into the gravel after a prang with Alonso, and Vettel tumbled down the order, only remaining ahead of other drivers who had suffered their own mishaps on the opening lap, namely Carlos Sainz, Alex Albon, Zhou Guanyu and Pierre Gasly.

While it appeared that the spin had shredded all of Vettel’s prior good work, a strategic call would reignite the German’s campaign for a fitting farewell to the Suzuka circuit.

 

Early stoppers secure huge advantage

Chart 3 Tyre strategy summary

Tyre strategy graph for 2022 Japanese GP

After the red flag caused by Sainz’s off on the first lap and the ensuing safety car period as the track dried, Vettel was first to come into the pits for a new set of intermediate tyres, alongside Nicholas Latifi at the restart.

It was a gamble born out of necessity and circumstance. After having fallen to the back of the order, Vettel had nothing to lose in rolling the dice for an advantage with the intermediate tyre.

His odds were always going to be good: the extreme wets are a nuanced tyre that only work optimally in a narrow window of conditions, and indeed the stop proved highly successful.

 

Vettel leapfrogs Alonso

Chart 4 Pitstop gain and loss

Vettel Alonso pitstop battle

Despite falling behind Alonso by over 16 seconds on lap 4, as the safety car continued to circulate, Vettel and Aston Martin’s quick thinking was able to net them an almost 20-second advantage over their competition, putting the German ahead of his lap 1 rival.

It was a classic case of being on the right tyre at the right time. Even though others responded quickly, the damage had been done and the preference for track position had been superseded by the benefits of visibility and grip.

But would Vettel be able to hold on?

 

Japanese Grand Prix story

Chart 5 Cumulative delta plot

Cumulative delta graph for Japanese GP

Vettel left the pitlane side by side with Latifi, got the better of the Williams heading into Turn 1, and blasted away with great pace.

This early advantage was short-lived, as Alonso quickly switched to the correct tyre, but while the Spaniard was close to Vettel, overtaking was no simple task and the Alpine driver spent a considerable portion of the race staring at the German’s gearbox.

See how the solid pink line of Alonso locks on to the dark green line of Vettel at around lap 11 in the graph above. The cumulative delta chart plots the average lap time for each driver as the race progresses, shown against a 1min 50sec baseline, so those of Vettel and Alonso converge as they run together on the track.

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Instead of waiting in the hope that Vettel’s tyres would degrade and make him an easy garget, Alonso and Alpine elected to roll the dice of their own – and pit for a fresh set of intermediates – almost exactly in line with the advice of pundit, ex-champion, and renowned changeable weather specialist Jenson Button.

The solid pink line drops and then the extra pace of the fresh tyres is evident, as Alonso’s average lap time swiftly rises, on collision course with Vettel’s.

However, Alpine pitted around a lap later than Button’s recommendation; given the slim margin to Vettel at the end of the race, perhaps Alpine’s pitwall should have been dialled in to the commentary box.

 

Vettel’s tyre sorcery

Chart 6 Race pace compared

Vettel Alonso Japanese GP smoothed lap times

Fresh intermediate tyres proved a potent weapon, where the lap times have been smoothed to filter out anomalies.

Zhou was one of the first to make the change and realised the gains almost immediately: see how his laptime, shown by the dotted red line, plummets below 105sec as soon as he stops on lap 18. However it’s also clear that Zhou’s performance also degraded relatively quickly.

Perhaps Alpine was optimistic that Alonso could keep the new intermediates alive for longer. While this appeared to somewhat be the case, he still quickly suffered noticeable degradation.

The other crucial element to consider is the fact that Vettel was able to keep his initial intermediate tyres alive for the duration of the stint, without sacrificing meaningful performance. Vettel didn’t suffer the degradation profiles observed by either Zhou or Alonso.

This was a hallmark of Vettel’s drive to P6.

 

The last lap battle

Chart 7 Final lap telemetry – Alonso vs Vettel

Final lap telemetry for Vettel and Alonso at the 2022 Japanese GP

It was all building up to this: the final lap crescendo as Alonso leaned on his fresher tyres and muscled alongside Vettel. They ducked, dived, slithered and blasted towards the chequered flag still side-by-side.

As Button had suggested, one more lap could have made the difference; it was such a small difference to be had, with Alonso only losing out by eleven hundredths of a second.

The final lap telemetry above shows just how impressive Vettel’s feat was. Alonso is about 2 seconds faster than Vettel on the final lap and both the speed and throttle trace how he had superior grip when compared to the German.

Alonso was able to carry more speed through the corners, as well as getting on the throttle sooner and with more confidence. Alonso and the Alpine also had the straight-line speed advantage – also visible in the above telemetry.

But despite all of this, despite how close Alonso got, Vettel had done enough in the final corner to get a good enough exit for the run down to the line.

Onboard footage of the battle shows that Alonso had run out of battery and was therefore unable use the overtake functionality of the electric motor for maximum power.

Be that as it may, Vettel had done enough to see himself over the line in the better position.

It was a spectacular performance that was easily deserving of the driver of the day award, and a fitting farewell to one of Vettel’s favourite tracks. A fantastic photo finish as well.


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