The familiar Ferrari flaw that cost Leclerc a shot at US GP victory

F1

The three-way battle for victory in the 2022 United States GP ended with a familiar winner. We examine the data with Project F1 to see where Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc's challenge fell down

Texas flag flies behind Charles Leclerc in the 2022 United States Grand Prix

Ferrari

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When a driver and car combination proves better than the rest, F1 relies on the unexpected for drama at the front of the race. And the Circuit of the Americas showed why.

A glance at the race data below confirms what we all saw: that Max Verstappen was on course to cruise to victory in Austin until chance (and a dodgy wheelgun) intervened.

With a sniff of a win, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc needed no further motivation: the Ferrari driver proving dogged in his comeback through the field after starting 12th, while a charging Hamilton and Mercedes threw the kitchen sink at the race.

But it wasn’t quite enough. Hamilton fell just a few laps short of collecting his first win of 2022, while Leclerc suffered a recurrence of an issue that has dogged his team this year, and once again cost him a chance of victory: the Ferrari once again proving harder on its tyres than rivals.

We’ve collated the data to tell the story of the US Grand Prix.

United States Grand Prix story

Chart 1 Cumulative delta plot

2022 US GP cumulative data graph

After a sensational qualifying performance from Carlos Sainz and a grid penalty for Leclerc, courtesy of new power unit components, Verstappen had another P2 start to add to this year’s collection.

It was a favourable starting position, putting the 2022 champion on the inside line for the run up the hill to Turn 1, and he took full advantage.

Carlos Sainz spins out at the start of the 2022 US GPAlready in the lead by he first corner, the news just got better for Verstappen as Sainz took a wide entry, which would give him a better run to Turn 2. But an over-eager George Russell rendered this futile when he tried to claim the Turn 1 apex from a long way back. Before he knew it, Sainz was in a spin (right) and had been dropped to the rear of the field before retiring due to terminal mechanical damage.

From then on, it looked to be a familiar story, even though Leclerc was galloping through the midfield and Hamilton had good pace.

The cumulative delta chart above plots the average lap time for each driver as the race progresses, against a 1min 43sec baseline, and it clearly shows Verstappen’s superior performance.

The Dutchman is represented by the pink dotted line; the gap between it and the turquoise line of Hamilton continues to grow as he laps consistently faster.

But then Valtteri Bottas span off, the safety car appeared, and the picture changed.

 

Safety car a saviour for Leclerc

Chart 2 Pitstop gain/loss

Leclerc Verstappen first pitstop analysis graph

The leaders pitted between laps 12 and 14, by which time Verstappen had enough of a lead over Leclerc to emerge ahead of the Ferrari, which was now fourth — ahead of both Mercedes which had stopped.

Staying out a few laps longer proved to be a rare, albeit unwitting, masterstroke by Ferrari. The emergence of the safety car enabled Leclerc to make his stop with minimal time loss. The chart above shows that the gap between him and Verstappen was 19.641sec on lap 12 but only 7.744sec on lap 19, once both drivers had been in the pits.

In reality, Leclerc’s time is likely to have been even greater than shown, because he would have lost more time to Verstappen in the intervening laps.

Leclerc was still caught behind third-placed Sergio Perez at the restart, and having to navigate his way past the slightly wounded Red Bull didn’t help his newfound chances of winning the race.

 

Hamilton runs Verstappen close

Chart 3 Race pace compared

Smoothed lap times for 2022 US GP

Leclerc made it past Perez on lap 30 to put himself in the mix for the fight at the front. He showed improved pace in clear air, as seen by the dropping dotted line in the chart above, which smooths out the lap times to filter out anomalies.

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It’s evident that the Ferrari still couldn’t keep up with the Red Bull or Mercedes, his tyres unwilling to put up with the demanding pace.

Hamilton, however, was pumping out the lap times to take the fight to Verstappen. During his second stint, he closed the pace gap to the Red Bull, shown by the solid turquoise line dipping closer to the dotted blue line of Verstappen until, on lap 31, it drops below. Here Hamilton is besting the Dutchman, but not for long.

Seeing Verstappen’s pace beginning to deteriorate, Mercedes pitted Hamilton, looking to gain the advantage with an undercut.

 

Hamilton goes hard

Chart 4 Tyre strategy summarised

Tyre strategy graph for 2022 US Grand Prix

All of the frontrunners pursued the same initial strategy in the race, starting on medium tyres and switching to hards, satisfying the two-compound requirement for the race. This was in line with Pirelli’s recommended strategies, shown at the top of Chart 4.

Mercedes only had fresh hard tyres left for its second stop; its rivals opted for mediums. This wasn’t necessarily a disadvantage. As seen further up the page in Chart 3, the Silver Arrows had tended to fare better for pace on the hard compound compared to the medium. The extra durability was also a positive, although the race would go on to show that the degradation of the medium tyre was not nearly as bad as had been anticipated.

Hamilton pitted at the end of lap 34, followed a lap later by Verstappen and Leclerc, ready to resume their challenge for the win. But a troublesome Red Bull wheel gun had other ideas.

 

Wheelgun foils Verstappen

Chart 5 Pitstop gain/loss

Verstappen v Leclerc secind pitstop battle analysis at 2022 US GP

The wheelgun glitch left Leclerc stationary for around 8.5sec longer than Leclerc. The delay was enough for Leclerc to get the jump on Verstappen and come out ahead.

The Ferrari driver was back in the fight and it brought benefits for Hamilton too, who was now ahead of both other contenders for the race win, in clear air and with a rear-gunner — in the shape of Leclerc — to delay the faster Verstappen.

That situation lasted until lap 39 when Verstappen was finally able to pass Leclerc, and set his sights on the Mercedes.

 

Ferrari failing appears again

Chart 6 Tyre degradation

Tyre degradation graph 2022 US GP

The pace battle raged on between Hamilton and Verstappen. Chart 4 shows the third-stint lap times of the front runners, corrected to exclude the effect of the reducing fuel load.

Verstappen had the early advantage against Hamilton – not unexpected given his softer tyre compound. It took a while for Verstappen’s pace to be challenged by Hamilton on the hard compound. In fact, there is only one occurrence where Hamilton had better pace, and only a couple of other moments where he was on par with the Red Bull.

This pace advantage by way of a softer compound and slow degradation helped Verstappen close the gap to Hamilton and make a straightforward overtake for the lead on lap 50.

Max Verstappen passes Lewis Hamilton for the lead of the 2022 US GP

Verstappen passes Hamilton for the lead of the US GP

Xavi Bonilla / DPPI

From this point, it wasn’t long before Hamilton’s tyres really started to let go — the chart above showing how his lap times rise sharply.

That said, his times were still competitive against Leclerc, on the faster medium tyre, The Ferrari suffered from degradation about nine laps into his final stint: the red line spiking up at that point and remaining well above the previous lap times.

There was a further drop off in pace towards the end of the stint, confirming again the Ferrari’s tendency to be harder on its tyres. As a result, Hamilton was unthreatened in second.

Leclerc, on the other hand, was not out of danger as Perez was still hammering out decent pace. Scroll back to Chart 1 and we can see how much Perez was able to rein in Leclerc. But there weren’t enough laps to mount a challenge for the final podium place. Leclerc too was safe.

And so, Verstappen survived against setbacks to take another victory at the United States Grand Prix. Hamilton missed out on a chance to score a first win of the 2022 season but demonstrated much-improved performance.

Leclerc showed that he can make his way through the field but the woes of tyre wear remain a top concern for Ferrari to overcome. The convergence of these narratives made for a podium of different triumphs.

 


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Race Results - 2022 United States Grand Prix