Is F1 set for a stormy Suzuka? 2022 Japanese GP: what to watch for
Max Verstappen stands on the brink of a second F1 world championship but as the Suzuka skies threaten another wet race, how will he — and the rest of the grid — deal with it?
Though this time around probably won’t be as nail-biting, it’s still likely the F1 drivers’ world title could once again be decided in the Land of the Rising Sun, as the championship returns to a legendary track for the first time in three years.
Max Verstappen stands a strong chance of to closing out his second consecutive crown at the John Hugenholtz-designed circuit but getting it over the line won’t necessarily be easy for the Dutchman.
Challenging weather could once more be factor this year, as F1 attempts to go big in Japan with its new generation of cars which are set to look right at home on Suzuka’s faster corners, including the might Esses and 130R.
Here’s what to watch for at the 2022 Japanese GP:
How much will it rain at the Japanese GP?
Hill’s heroics in ’94
Grand Prix Photo
The Japanese GP has had some classic duels in the rain before, with Damon Hill’s 1994 victory in a barnstorming race perhaps Suzuka’s greatest offering.
The Williams driver clung on to win the race on aggregate after it had been stopped due to torrential rain conditions, and we could yet see more action in adverse conditions this weekend.
This weekend, Friday is set for rain and, after a clear day on Saturday, sunshine and showers are forecast for Sunday. Who will tame the storm in Suzuka?
Suzuka only has one DRS zone
Unlike many other races on the calendar, Suzuka only has one DRS zone, meaning that despite it being an exciting circuit within itself, overtaking opportunities are at a premium.
Though dive-bombs into the hairpin and chicane have been witnessed, not to mention a few daring moves round into 130R, Turn 1 will likely be the place to see the most action.
The single DRS detection zone is just before the 130R, with the rear wing opening down the start / finish straight after the chicane.
As a result, some DRS games could be played. If a car were to let a chasing competitor ahead out of Spoon before the detection zone, they could then potentially repass them on the main straight using the aerodynamic advantage.
Though Max Verstappen has said overtaking could be “tricky”, Carlos Sainz is more optimistic.
“With a DRS zone and the slipstream through there it should be fine,” he says. “Normally at every track while last year you needed more than a second to overtake faster than the car in front, this year is less than a second. So it should be possible.”
How can Verstappen win the championship?
Max Verstappen’s march to the title has seemed almost irresistible at times, and now it’s nearly upon us – there are variety of ways the Dutchman can clinch the F1 drivers’ title this weekend.
Verstappen’s second title seems inevitable, but will he claim it in Japan?
Red Bull
The most straightforward route would be for him to win the race and take fastest lap – he would therefore be out of reach of Leclerc, with a 112-point margin between them and only that amount of points left to play for, meaning Verstappen would win on victory count-back.
Without the fastest lap bonus point, he can also win if Leclerc or Perez finish lower than third.
If Verstappen were to grab the FL point with a runner-up finish – with Leclerc fifth or lower and Perez fourth or lower – then he would be 2022 champion.
If the Red Bull man brings it in second without the FL point, and then Leclerc to take the chequered lower than fifth or fifth without the bonus point, and Perez lower than fourth or fourth without the bonus point, then Verstappen would be the F1 king once more.
The Japanese GP is set to punish Pirelli tyres
Similar to Silverstone and Zandvoort, Suzuka is tough on tyres, generating more wear than almost any other circuit on the calendar.
Watch the 2022 Japanese Grand Prix live on TV or stream it: all the timings for this weekend's practice, qualifying and race sessions from Suzuka
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As a result Pirelli is bringing its hardest combination of tyres: C1,C2 and C3, the least-used selection that the tyre manufacturer has gone for this season, having been only used at five races this year.
As Ferrari’s ‘Head of Tyre Science’ Carlos Galbally explains, those with the lighter tyre touch will be rewarded.
“As with other high energy tracks, it will be important to get the right balance between warm-up over one lap and avoiding over-stressing the tyres on the long runs, which always requires some compromises between qualifying and the race,”
“The FP2 long runs will also be of critical importance, as they provide the best chance to collect data needed for tyre race management.”
