Four drivers set for Alpine shootout — but will any get the 2023 F1 seat?

Whether or not the lower positions in the IndyCar series top 10 standings should be worth more points in the future is a different question.

More importantly F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali has also come out strongly in the Herta case. Obviously he wants to protect F3 and F2 – they are part of the business he runs – but there’s also a fear that if an American is fast-tracked to a licence and then it doesn’t work out, as with the infamous Michael Andretti/McLaren relationship in 1993, then it will actually damage the sport in the USA.

Given the chorus of disapproval the chances of the FIA making an exception for Herta receded very quickly.

Red Bull hasn’t given up, and Alpine is trying to help out by giving Herta a test in Budapest in its 2021 car next week, although quite what will be achieved by that is unclear.

If, as we’ve been told by Christian Horner, that Herta is the only driver who could trigger a release for Gasly, that should be the end of it. Liam Lawson, the next Red Bull junior in line and official reserve for the two teams, is apparently not regarded as being ready for promotion to a race seat.

The other possibility is that Red Bull contradicts Horner’s earlier assertion and takes someone else to replace Gasly. Mick Schumacher’s name had been linked with AlphaTauri, which might have made more sense when Porsche was still lurking in the background, and having a high-profile German in the Red Bull camp would have been an obvious benefit.

If not Gasly at Alpine, then who?

Gasly is still at the top of Alpine’s list, and it’s been made clear that any past personal rivalry between the 2020 Italian GP winner and potential future team mate Esteban Ocon will have to be overcome, should be get the drive.

Alpine has made it clear that it is in no hurry to make a decision, and thus in effect it can wait for the Gasly situation to play out. The risk is that in waiting it might lose other potential candidates.

One solution is already onboard. Alpine might have lost Piastri, but it still has Jack Doohan, whose stock has been rising recently. The young Aussie responded to suddenly being in the frame for an F1 graduation by showing good speed in recent F2 weekends, even if he’s not had much luck in the actual races, aside from a feature win at Spa. He also took pole at Monza.

He currently lies fourth in the championship, just 11 points shy of third, but with several drivers close behind. However, a superlicence is a formality for him even if he slips down the order, thanks to past championship results.

Although many now see Doohan as favourite for the drive, Alpine has made its open-minded position clear by inviting Nyck de Vries and Antonio Giovinazzi to join the young Australian and Herta at the Budapest test.

De Vries raised his stock with his brilliant drive to ninth at Monza with Williams, and some would argue that Alpine should have signed him there and then. It remains to be seen whether someone else does take him even before the Alpine test can happen.

Giovinazzi is seen as a safe pair of hands, and one of the few still young but experienced drivers on the sidelines, with 62 starts to his name. His record at Alfa Romeo looks unspectacular, but the car wasn’t always good. He is still highly-regarded, especially by Ferrari, for whom he is test and reserve driver. An FP1 outing at Monza last week, that saw him almost match regular driver Kevin Magnussen on his first outing in a 2022 car, did him no harm.

Schumacher cannot be completely ruled out at Alpine, while Daniel Ricciardo should be an obvious candidate, but his name is not being mentioned. He angered Renault CEO Luca de Meo when he left for McLaren after being paid handsomely to be the future of Renault/Alpine, and de Meo remains the key voice in any driver decision. Indeed Ricciardo’s name isn’t cropping up much in connection with any of the available seats, although he has a firm offer to be reserve at Mercedes next year.

Who will get the 2023 Haas F1 seat?

Another possibility for Alpine is Nico Hülkenberg, who raced for the Enstone outfit in 2017-19 and knows team principal Otmar Szafnauer well from his Force India days. He could be a good guy to give a one-year deal, pending Gasly becoming available in 2023.

However, the German is also linked with Haas as replacement for Schumacher, assuming that the latter’s departure is finally officially confirmed. If the US-owned team wants to have two experienced drivers, he would be a logical choice. By coincidence his former Renault engineer Mark Slade has just joined the team, initially to run Kevin Magnussen.

“Everybody with a superlicence is on the list,” says Guenther Steiner. “I think he’s a candidate like all the other ones, because he’s got a superlicence, he has done F1, he has experience.

“I mean, there is nobody who is racing now that you could get if you wanted to change. We just have to see what is the best decision.”

Giovinazzi is the other main candidate at Haas, and his Ferrari connections don’t hurt – although Guenther Steiner has made it clear that Maranello can only advise and not oblige the team to run its favoured driver. He did some FP1s for the team back in 2017, and his run in Monza was a good chance to stake a claim. He may also have some sponsorship to deploy.

Reserve driver Pietro Fittipaldi is another possibility, and there is talk of some Brazilian backing that might help his cause. He is likely to do the two obligatory rookie FP1 sessions for the team over the last few races.

Will Williams wait for Sargeant?

The word at Williams is that there are two main candidates, namely de Vries and the team’s F2 protege, American Logan Sargeant.

The appeal of bringing the latter into F1 via the traditional European route, and beating Herta to the punch, is obvious.

He’s won two feature races and had a good first full F2 season, but it’s fallen apart a bit lately, just as he became a serious contender for an F1 seat. He currently lies third in the championship, but it’s close. Bad luck in Abu Dhabi could see him tumble several places and thus potentially fall out of the superlicence zone.

In other words Williams has to wait until the middle of November to find out if the team can run actually him next season. The alternative is to take someone else now, and give Sargeant a second year in F2.

If Williams does wait, it could lose de Vries to Alpine, or even Haas. The Dutchman in turn is not keen to hang on for anyone’s decision, as he has WEC and Formula E drives lined up that he might forfeit if the wait for F1 news drags on too long.

As noted those are the two names most closely associated with Williams, and boss Jost Capito has made it clear that he’s more than happy to take a rookie. However the team could yet surprise everyone with an alternative choice, such as Giovinazzi, Schumacher or even Ricciardo.